A shocking revelation from the XXI. Század Intézet has exposed the hidden agenda behind Medián’s polls. According to Deák Dániel, the institute is about to release manipulated district-level predictions, but the truth has already leaked out.
Deák claims that Medián’s internal numbers show a comfortable Fidesz majority. The leaked data reveals that Medián predicts a certain Fidesz victory in 58 districts, while only 36 districts are expected to go to Tisza. One additional district is projected for other candidates, and the remaining 11 are considered too close to call. This suggests that Medián’s internal assessments point to a cozy Fidesz majority in the parliament.
This isn’t the first time Deák has accessed Medián’s true poll numbers. Previously, he obtained the institute’s January data, which showed that Medián had manipulated its results. In January, Medián publicly claimed that Tisza had 40% support among the entire population, while Fidesz had 33%. However, the leaked internal figures revealed that both Fidesz and Tisza were actually at 36% when asked who they would vote for if they definitely went to the polls.
Deák emphasized that such blatant manipulation of poll data is unprecedented since the fall of the communist regime. He noted that Medián’s manipulated polls are Tisza’s main campaign tool against other opposition parties. By using these rigged polls, they steer voters away from smaller opposition parties towards Tisza. It’s clear manipulation!
Interestingly, the Nézőpont Intézet’s projections align closely with Medián’s numbers, predicting that government party candidates will win in 66 out of 106 districts. Using multiple methodologies, including historical voting patterns and district-specific surveys, Nézőpont concludes that Fidesz-KDNP is likely to secure 66 districts, while Tisza’s candidates are expected to win in 39 districts. Other opposition parties, such as Mi Hazánk, DK, and Kutyapárt, have little chance of winning individual districts.
This analysis indicates that with 66 district wins and 34 additional list mandates, the government parties will secure the parliamentary majority needed for Viktor Orbán’s re-election. The truth behind the polls has been exposed, revealing a calculated effort to maintain Fidesz’s power.